International critics have shown that they are unable to bring about the
necessary changes or have appropriate organizational measures that have a
positive impact on border control or are capable of mitigating the risks of
tensions and violence between migrants and European citizens.
Symmetrically, the policy of the European Union has never been to try to bring about change through coercive measures that lead to an increase in the discrimination and economic deprivation of immigrant populations in their territory. It is widespread awareness that such behavior would impact significantly with the cultural, scientific, philosophical and religious project of Europe. Because this project is a fact, not an opinion, it has universal value and is recognized by everyone as such. A strong continent of this heritage must prefigure coherent and essential scenarios for adequate planning and effective development of border policies. He must manage the problem with rationally evident criteria, without letting himself get involved in emotional attitudes, often dictated by prejudice, or worn out by the rhetoric from which instead he must avoid to avoid being governed by panic and being directed by fear. A great effort is required to fully understand these attitudes and stubbornly apply the fundamental principles of one’s cultural project. Only in this way is it possible to achieve appropriate organizational measures for the control of borders and internal serenity through the instruments proper to the scientific and cultural heritage available to the European Union.
The migration issue is the biggest challenge facing the European Union. The complexity of the phenomenon requires an analysis and a deep study of the events that have occurred more frequently in recent years. These events have severely tested the humanitarian ideals registered in international conventions, in the constitutions to which the laws of European countries refer. Dramatic events occurred in the EU states located on the borders with the Mediterranean and eastern areas, because these countries bear the burden of helping and managing migrants. The Dublin European regulation, the geography and the flows that proceed from the lower latitudes to the upper and from east to west converge so that Italy, Greece and Spain are committed to selecting those who, as refugees, will be able to settle in their home and expel others to the country of origin if the illegal immigrant is identified (a circumstance that may prove to be the equivalent of the death sentence) or, in the absence of identification, to allocate it to a wandering life, with the permanent mark of illegal immigration. Immigration is a phenomenon that shows itself more and more as normal, structural, constitutive in our continental profile for multiple reasons and cannot be circumvented. Both from a demographic and cultural point of view, but also from an economic point of view considering that the presence of foreign origin, usually younger, is a cornerstone of our workforce. The explosion of forced migration has a primary geopolitical root: the decomposition of postcolonial states between the Middle East, Africa and south-eastern Europe. With the exclusion of Ethiopia, Liberia and South Africa, the remaining 51 African states gained independence after World War II; South Sudan in 2011. An independence in some cases more fictitious than real. Without neglecting that in many countries the memory of colonialism is still alive and heavy. This dimension helps us better understand the migratory drives and feelings of the heterogeneous African people towards Europe. In the short span of a century, our continent was transformed from a colonizing subject into a coveted place for its former colonized people. The migratory stock of the East is considerable and, since the historical 1990 – at the end of the cold war and consequent beginning of the uncontrolled migratory flow – has grown by half, reaching one inhabitant for every ten Europeans.
This flow would not raise any alarm in countries where mobility on the territory is an appreciated value, not so in the Old Continent, where sedentaryness is preferred and the prejudices rooted in history are still alive, ready to become more acute when the first emergency arises. This happens if the foreigner is black, Muslim or otherwise from cultures that are easily associated with diversity and threat.
Dealing with and reasoning with analytical force such an important and essential issue for the EU is a task that requires commitment and analytical skills. It also requires an aptitude to prefigure coherent and essential scenarios for adequate planning and effective policy development. All this cannot be confined to the Is the scope of a simple and ambitious desire to show off. It is an effort that we owe to our history, our culture, our heritage of civilization which, if not properly exercised, would indelibly mark Europe’s cultural, scientific, philosophical and religious project. Because this project is a fact, not an opinion, it has universal value and is recognized by everyone as such. If a strong continent of this heritage is shocked by the arrival of a few thousand people, then something essential does not work in the “cradle of civilization”. If then an important part of Europeans associates migrants with terrorists and the absolute majority invokes their rejection, means that we need to study the phenomenon in greater depth to avoid being ruled by panic, so that we are not hypnotized by fear to the point of being directed.
• Objective 1. Analysis of migration flows and the reasons for the tendency to live in a country other than that of birth.
Objective 1.1. Take the South-North, East-West and South-South flow directions. Understanding the drama of the southern hemisphere where misery, armed conflicts, illegal trafficking, epidemics and famines are concentrated. Identify the causes of the resistance of many European countries to welcome African migrants. Study the different methods and procedures for asylosinora applicants adopted by the various states.
Objective 1.2. Examination of the economy of African countries in particular of “fragile African states”. Identify the migrant basins located in West Africa, Central Africa, the Horn of Africa and the Syrian Levant from which the southern corridors of migrants go mainly to Europe. Trace a possible interlocution of the organs of the E.U. and individual states.
• Objective 2. To develop a new systematic research methodology that integrates and summarizes an overall analysis of the ongoing political, economic and demographic dynamics and how the heterogeneous world of migrants can be accepted in the European economic and welfare system.
• Objective 2.1. Create indicators to measure quantitatively and qualitatively the level of education and training of migrants, very often of a low level and difficult to assimilate to European ones.
• Objective 2.2. To think about adequate structures for the youngest migrants of Central Africa, innovating the criteria of education, training, inclusion and integration. Identify and recognize what type of contribution they can make to social and economic life in the EU;
• Objective 3. Validity of the separation of cultures and delimitation of the boundaries of the respective cultural heritages. Analysis of the benefits for the communities involved. Improve governmental approaches and responses to interpersonal relationships between migrants and natives.
Objective 3.1. Proposals for the formation of a homogeneous society with the dissolution of cultural differences. Verification of the validity of the choice. Examination of lived experiences. Prepare original behavioral models that describe, characterize and foresee actions of homogeneous cultural communities in Europe.
• Objective 3.2. Establish reciprocity in cultural relationships, habits, forms of mixed aggregations. Stimulate the willingness of migrants to enter community ways of life. Involvement of migrants, migrant researchers and refugees from backgrounds with a cultural background completely different from the European one.
In 1964 the German weekly Der Spiegel celebrated on the cover Armando Rodriguez de Sá, the millionth Gastarbeiter, welcomed in Federal Germany with an official ceremony in Cologne and the gift of a motorcycle. Today no European ruler would probably want to celebrate a foreign immigrant. At that time, the conflict between the more or less free flow of capital and people and the need for states to identify with a community of people was not resolved. Today remains the drama of the migrant, who undergoes and embodies the conflict between the needs of the rich European countries and their hidden racist drives. In the short span of a generation, two streams of fear crossed our continent: the specter of the Slavic / Albanian invasion in the early 1990s and the fear of Arab / Islamic penetration at the beginning of the century. The opening of internal borders (Schengen, 1995) has contributed to generating the reaction to the current crisis. That is, the feared invasions of migratory hordes that would threaten our civilization and would oblige us to any kind of defense. And since invasions exist only because they are believed to be such, there is an opportunity to investigate origins, profiles, consequences, so that the threat is brought back to the confines of concrete and real facts. Demographic projections tell us that the current approximately seven billion people inhabit the planet will become a at least nine in the middle of the century. From the great migratory heritage and its various trends, four profiles can be isolated:
A) The first tells us that people who live in a country other than that of birth grow significantly: there were 154 million in 1990, while in 2013 they had become 232 million. In the same period, migrants grew from 2.9% to 3.2%. Two countries alone received a quarter of international migrants in 2013: the United States of America and the Russian Federation. Germany followed, with Italy in eleventh place.
B) The second concerns refugees, or those who have been forced to flee their homeland in search of salvation elsewhere. In the first decade of this century, refugees were estimated at around 40 million, becoming 60 million in 2014, 8.3 more than the previous year, which has grown significantly in the last five years mainly due to the new conflicts in the Syrian Levant, in Ukraine , in North Africa and in the Sahel. Stateless people are estimated at around ten million.
C) The third profile concerns the South-North and South-South flow lines which each represent just over a third of global migrations. The main country of reception for people fleeing the war and oppression is Turkey (1.59 million), followed by Pakistan, Lebanon, Iran, Ethiopia and Jordan. The top three producers of refugees are Syria (3.88 million), Afghanistan and Somalia. Africa is, after Oceania, the continent that produces the least emigration, not because candidates for flight from wars and misery are scarce, but for a very sad reason: the lack of the necessary money. The refugee invasion is primarily an internal tragedy in the southern hemisphere, in which misery, armed conflicts, clandestine trafficking, epidemics and famines are concentrated in which migrants are doubly victims because they flee the war fires and because they are mistreated or rejected by the countries in the which seek escape.
D) The fourth profile concerns forced migration by geopolitical roots: the decolonization of States between the Middle East, Africa and south-eastern Europe which we have already dealt with previously.
The study of these profiles helps to better understand flows to Europe. The maximum migratory pressure is concentrated on the crossroads between Africa / Asia and Europe, from the Strait of Gibraltar to the Sicilian Channel to the Evros River, the border between Turkey and Greece, where the Greek authorities are considering constructing walls to avoid the ford of the river.
If the Mediterranean divides the African continent from Europe, Italy is the first landing for migrants to proceed in view of their privileged goal: central-northern Europe. Crossing Euro-Mediterranean waters and lands from 2000 to today, at least one million and two hundred thousand “irregular” have crossed the gates of Europe. Over the past fifteen years, at least 25 thousand people have died in the risky crossings on makeshift boats and rafts managed by human traffickers, making the Mediterranean the largest mass grave on the planet. Special attention deserves the south-north axis that connects northern Nigeria via Niger to Libyan Fezzan, where Boko Haram and the clan militias respectively narco-jihadists and other managers of the migration market, after the fall of Gaddafi. We are in the middle of the Sahel, a semi-arid continental center of gravity between the Sahara and the southern savannas, extended from Senegal to Sudan. Perhaps the poorest part of the continent, surplus of youth without horizons, where the majority of the population is under 18 years old. We are faced with an inexhaustible reservoir of potential or actual migrants, many of which flow towards the Nigerian hub of Agadez, the informal capital of North African traffic, the gateway to Fezzan and the Mediterranean ports of ex Libya. It is in this context that a lot of our future as Europeans is played out. We are facing a vast region with rapidly growing population, hand in hand with the complex of African countries, which overall should exceed one and a half billion inhabitants by 2030 and reach two billion around 2050. And the young people of this The area will exert considerable and incessant pressure on the Mediterranean borders. What will Europe do? He cannot reasonably oppose walls, barbed wire or close doors to stop pressure. Instead, it will have to equip itself to offer a social, economic and political environment at least to a minimal extent to their growing expectations. An attitude and behavior in line with one’s heritage of civilization.
Reception – training – education
Since most EU countries contain the dual condition of immigration land and welfare state, the combination proves extremely fragile. If the burden of solidarity becomes too heavy due to an economic crisis or progressive aging of the population, a drastic reduction in social benefits may be necessary. The German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees assesses the level of education of those arriving in Germany low, or at the most modest. Many refugees (76%) do not have professional training or educational qualifications (40%) and the latter, when present, are often difficult to assimilate to German analogues. The same applies to professional training which cannot be compared to German standards (% 5). The initial estimate that quantified the time required for the labor integration of refugees in six years appears to be the most optimistic. This is the picture that lies ahead for the next decades. Now if this happens in Germany where the level of assistance to immigrants is high enough, it is not difficult to imagine what is happening elsewhere. It should also be considered that the refugees who arrived from 2015 onwards enter direct competition with longer-term immigrants and unskilled natives for the few unskilled jobs available today. Since the beginning of the migrant crisis in 2015, innumerable integration initiatives have been undertaken at every level: federal, local, parish, district and school. Many activities have been started at the request of public administrations, but the share of initiatives born directly from the commitment of civil society is not negligible. Among the most popular projects are German language courses, help in finding a home and legal advice. But this is not enough and it cannot be enough, a perspective developed at European level with a careful look at local situations and of individual states is needed. The migrant crisis has changed Germany which has seen numerous crimes with which the authorities and police have not measured themselves for some time. Other countries, although not protagonists of these sad events, have shared their fears, in some cases increasing them without any justification. Currently Italy, Spain and Greece are transit countries for migratory flows, but all three can aspire to become a place where they study and then return to their homeland. That is, a completely new and innovative human resources policy. It is possible to train an intermediate class of technicians and operatives that is useful for tomorrow’s Africa. The training would serve to integrate the cooperation, both institutional and NGOs, already present in the continent with attention to sustainability. By offering know-how, technologies and non-invasive economic models such as SMEs, cooperation would become more effective and strengthen state institutions on the continent.
The demographic process
Demographic processes produce their effects in the long run. The dynamics inherent in the structure of the population by age group necessitate a slow and in some ways unstoppable change. This demographic situation has produced changes in family and reproductive behavior in the EU, leading to an aging population and a strong presence of immigrants. People born in the period in which the births were sustained (from the mid-sixties with continuation in the following decade) are now over fifty years old. The drop in fertility results in a narrow-based social pyramid, despite a relatively thriving economy and a welfare system among the first in the world. The constant increase in life expectancy at birth has meant that in the three-year period 2015-17 this value has reached, on average among the various European countries, 78.4 years for men and 83.2 years for women. A trend that, as in other industrialized countries, causes a continuous aging of the population. At the age of 65, a man has a residual life expectancy of 17.8 years, while a 21 year old woman. In particular, there is no certainty that the increase in the years spent so far in good health can have a similar trend in the future. In the 2015-17 three-year period, the balance between births and deaths was widely negative. Migration flows have ensured a very positive overall balance for European demography.
The dynamics of migrant workers
Despite the economic crisis that began in 2008, the EU has been able to attract new non-EU workers, but has also managed to move young workers from southern European countries internally afflicted by high and persistent unemployment. On this point it was observed that before 2010 the migratory balance of Greeks, Italians, Spaniards and Portuguese in Germany was negative due to the return of the Gastarbeiter, in recent years there has been a positive balance for immigrants from these countries. However, minor migratory balances when compared with those involving citizens of other EU member states such as Romanians or Poles. To better understand the phenomenon, it is necessary to distinguish the different types of people with backgrounds migratory, in particular refugees, asylum seekers and refugees; failing that, there is a risk of not recognizing the specificity and value of such a heterogeneous contribution to the social and economic life of the EU, without denying any negative implications. Here, too, the initiative of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) deserves attention and applause, which since 2005 has introduced the concept of migratory background (Migrationsbintergrund) which allowed to estimate the population with migratory background in 19.3 million out of a total of 81 , 7 million people resident in the family (23.6%), thus excluding those who reside in institutions.
Africa is underpopulated and there would be no need to emigrate if it weren’t for wars, pandemics or the absence of democracy. A serious environmental problem is desertification which, as a reason for emigrating, precedes poverty. But the most interesting data are the millions of uncultivated hectares that are subject to the attentions of non-African countries from which the land gabbring. This is a fact that needs to be studied in depth because Africa could enter globalization through agriculture, as China did through industry. Certainly it takes know-how and resources for the modernization of agriculture. But here the geopolitics of the U.E.
The dynamics of social factors
Everything suggests that the next few years will be characterized by areas with low population density threatened by a population decrease and urban centers characterized instead by a strong tendency towards individualism and internationalization with an often growing population. A challenge that cannot be tackled by adopting purely demographic solutions, such as increasing birth rates or immigration. All social and economic factors must be taken into consideration, because demographic change has important effects on the labor market, on the housing market, on security systems and social cohesion. It has been a phenomenon that has been going on for some time: an aging population shifts the demand for goods and services in other directions and creates new challenges for the pension system. The health care and assistance system for people who are not self-sufficient shows visible suffering. The diversity of care, for example, tells us that in Italy the care of the elderly is borne by the individual and the family they belong to, in Germany families can count on a dense network of nursing homes. All this translates into the fact of privileging the living conditions of individuals and families or their social, welfare and economic opportunities. That we should not, for example, think of a permanent role of education and investment of human capital as fundamental elements for the demographic and socio-economic future? A very important starting point is the choice of the German federal government and the Lander governments which since 2012 have started to develop a demographic strategy (Demografiestrategie) which aims to bring together all aspects of demographic change and the related political responses.
The new demographic structure
In recent years there has been a lot of talk about benchmarks as a reference point to aim for but also to evaluate one’s actions and the results produced. Being part of a Union also means looking favorably at the best performances in the sectors of reference. Still remaining in Germany, Destatis predicts that the German population will have 82.9 million inhabitants in 2030 and 76.5 million in 2060, with an almost constant fertility of 1.5 children per woman and a life expectancy at birth of 84, 7 years for men and 88.8 years for women. The migration balance will drop to 200,000 by 2021 and will remain constant thereafter. Thanks to immigration, the demographic decrease (weniger) will probably be postponed until after 2030. On the contrary, the increase in heterogeneity (bunter) due to immigration and aging (alter = old age) are inevitable. The age structure will certainly change already in the next few years: by 2060 the population under 20 will drop from the current 18% to 17%, the one over 65 will rise from 21% to 31%, while the ultra-octogenarian population will go from 6% to 12%. In addition, the active population – usually identified between the ages of 20 and 64 – will drop to 52%.
The demographic change is likely to change the territory: cities, urban areas, metropolises and small towns, university centers and strong of a thriving economy will attract more and more people, while rural and peripheral areas will continue to lose population and consequently the base of their existence. Social and economic changes are likely to have the greatest weight in determining the future of the country; demographic change in itself represents and will represent only a challenge
Such a vast and complex topic requires a set of procedures developed to group data and to measure complex and not directly observable concepts. A coherent and organic set of indicators will be used to check the effective overlap between indicators, concepts consistent with each phase of the procedure. All efforts will be aimed at ensuring the effective management of the migratory phenomenon which must necessarily stimulate dialogue and cooperation between the countries involved, therefore countries of origin, transit and destination, in order to find common solutions for every question related to it. , i.e. improving border controls, ensuring international protection, fighting irregular immigration and making the most of the positive effects of regular migration.