Three components:
(1) Fundamental research, (2) comparisons and rule constructions (3) public policy recommendations
A migration policy that is said to be suitable to guarantee the effective management of the migratory phenomenon must therefore necessarily stimulate dialogue and cooperation between the countries of origin, transit and destination, in order to find common solutions for every question connected to it, is valid to say improve border controls, ensure international protection, combat irregular immigration and make the most of the positive effects of regular migration. The effort of this project aims to become a reasoned model of integration, cohesion and social interaction
To implement the work program and achieve the objectives, we will use the above described methodological concepts to direct our effort. To this end, there are three components of our research plan, comparisons and public policy recommendations related to forecasts.
Such a vast and complex topic requires a set of procedures developed to group data, to measure complex and not directly observable concepts. We would prefer to use a coherent and organic set of indicators, also developing inter-subjective criteria to control the actual overlap between indicators and concept and the completeness of the procedure.
First pillar of this proposal is the
demystification of African migration, through a careful investigation and
empirical discoveries that aim to highlight the enormous distance between the
realities of African migration and the perceptions of both public opinion and
policy makers. We will try to demonstrate with rational and evident data that
African migration is not increasing and mainly oriented to the North, since
most African migrants migrate to Africa. The various migration flows will be
followed to verify how the emigration phenomenon from the poorest regions, in
particular, is mainly oriented towards destinations within the African
continent. It will then be highlighted how emigration from Africa is higher
from the North Africa region, where countries have relatively higher levels of
human and economic development. We will investigate whether better
infrastructure, higher income, better education and access to information
increase the likelihood of people migrating, and whether this phenomenon
continues in the future. Particular attention will be paid to smuggling and
whether these are the cause of migration from Africa to Europe or, rather, the
consequence of more restrictive migration policies. Furthermore, it is not
clear that further controls on immigration lead to less migration, as policy
makers think, even if the comparison will have to provide more definitive
elements, not excluding the probability that migration policies generate
unwanted effects. All this will be the subject of particular investigation.
Research should better understand migratory “behaviors” and the
choices of African migrants. The following points relating to restrictive
migration policies implemented by European countries will be taken into
consideration:
1. Choice of destination.
Migrants choose to migrate to other destination countries rather than their
former colonizing nation when this country has implemented restrictive
migration policies, especially if they cannot migrate through family
reunification or have had difficulty integrating into other destination
countries.
2. Paths. Migrants remain in the
transit countries before reaching Europe when the migration policies that
regulate access to Europe become more restrictive, in particular those that are
poorly qualified (and therefore less likely to obtain a visa) and who cannot
migrate through family reunification.
3. Channel. Migrants pay smugglers,
use false documents to facilitate their migration and apply for asylum when
policies controlling migrants’ access to destination countries become more
restrictive.
4. Intention to go back in time.
Migrants are less likely to return after migration to Europe if they know that
entry policies in Europe have become restrictive because they know it will be
difficult to migrate again. This is particularly true for those who have had
difficulty migrating or not being documented.
5. Circulation. Migrants have fewer
opportunities to go back and forth when entry and residence policies are more
restrictive, especially those who have no documents, have short-term residence
permits or limited rights to work in the country of destination, as movement
requires capital financial and freedom of movement.
Second pillar is rappresented by the method with which to build a model so that the result is
usable and suitable for building policies that cannot be shared only by the
various EU countries. but that live up to the history of Europe, its cultural,
scientific and humanitarian project, in which every citizen can recognize
himself. Extensive use will be made of social, mathematical, anthropological,
statistical, economic, etc. sciences, and all procedures will be widely
documented, reliable and verifiable. Likewise, the rigorous, logical-rational
analysis that will be adopted, providing the necessary demonstrations, will be
verifiable. The documents that will be the source / object of the research and
analysis are all official documents of public organizations, but non-governmental
and private sources will also be used: the reliability and rigor adopted in the
research will be verified for all. Maximum transparency will be adopted in the
decoding devices of the documentary material that will be acquired. Next to it,
research will be carried out at every possible source of knowledge: ministries
which in various capacities deal with migration, port authorities, embassies,
NGOs, study centers, private associations, ecclesiastics, etc. Ultimately any
organization involved in the phenomenon of migration that provides adequate
reliability.
Third pillar aims at understanding migratory flows lies in the reasons and analysis of
comparative demography African population growth is recent, and has been rapid:
it is estimated that in the period 2000-2007 the population grew at an average
annual rate of 2 , 5%, over double the world average (World bank 2009b); in the
following period it increased to 3%. According to United Nations estimates,
growth has had this trend: from almost 675 million inhabitants in 2000 to over
863 in 2010, up to nearly 1 billion in 2015 which will reach almost 1.2 billion
in 2025. The most relevant figure of this rapid population growth is made up of
the high percentage of very young people who, in the age range from 0 to 14
years, touch 50% of the inhabitants, against a world average abundantly below
30%. All this despite the low life expectancy at birth (around 50 years in
2006), which gives a generous proportion between the complex of young people
and elderly people of non-working age, on the one hand, and the adult
population in the active age, from the ‘else. The diversity that distinguishes
the various states is nonetheless remarkable: some are small both by population
and by surface, such as Swaziland and Lesotho (17,364 km2 and 1,123,000 inhab.
And 30,355 km2 and 2,130,000 inhab., 2009 respectively) ; others are very
different from each other in terms of number of inhabitants and territory and
there is talk of states with relatively small populations compared to their
large size, such as Mozambique (21 million inhabitants, 801,590 km2); other
states are both populous and extensive, such as Nigeria (148 million
inhabitants, 923,768 km2) and states of such a wide extent as to make control
of the territory difficult, in particular the Democratic Republic of the Congo
(2,345,410 km 2, 62 million inhabitants). The low population density, long-term
constant in African history, is accentuated by the tragic tribute imposed by
the slave trade between the beginning of the 16th and the middle of the 19th
century, both on the Atlantic route and on the eastern routes that supplied the
Muslim world. This territory / population structure must be integrated with
economic data. To make a clear, clear and immediate perception of the income of
the whole sub-Saharan Africa, it is enough to refer to a comparison often
mentioned that estimated at about 762 billion dollars, a value slightly higher
than that of the Netherlands (about 750 billion), which have a population 50
times smaller (World bank). In the world-wide classification by income
brackets, none of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa were included in the
high-income group (World bank). Only 6 countries (Botswana, Gabon, Mauritius,
Mayotte, Seychelles, South Africa) were in the high-end middle-income group,
and 8 others (Angola, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Republic of the Congo, Lesotho,
Namibia, Sudan, Swaziland) in low-income middle-income group. The low-income
group included the remaining 33 of 47 sub-Saharan African countries. In
essence, very few states in this region have a per capita income that allows,
in conditions of income distribution not too unbalanced, to relieve the
population from conditions of serious and widespread poverty. So the reasoning
that must unfold cannot be separated from the consideration of a sub-Saharan
Africa called to face the challenge of growth with investments in physical and
human capital, and substantial increases in productivity to support wider
production flows, an indispensable condition ile to improve consumption widely and to cope with the
increase in population.
Africa Current population by age and sex for 2019-03-03 *
Male | % | Female | |
0-4 | 100 880 501 | ⇐+3% | 97 928 326 |
5-9 | 89 141 853 | ⇐+3% | 86 505 878 |
10-14 | 77 260 056 | ⇐+2.3% | 75 500 914 |
15-19 | 66 998 270 | ⇐+2.6% | 65 314 346 |
20-24 | 58 273 259 | ⇐+2.3% | 56 983 397 |
25-29 | 51 494 171 | ⇐+1.2% | 50 901 711 |
30-34 | 45 031 197 | +0.2%⇒ | 45 106 574 |
35-39 | 37 463 733 | +1.2%⇒ | 37 912 166 |
40-44 | 30 077 449 | +1.1%⇒ | 30 415 075 |
45-49 | 23 969 002 | +2%⇒ | 24 452 720 |
50-54 | 19 538 835 | +3.5%⇒ | 20 215 023 |
55-59 | 15 762 887 | +6.7%⇒ | 16 817 104 |
60-64 | 12 110 965 | +10.9%⇒ | 13 426 967 |
65-69 | 8 755 117 | +15.4%⇒ | 10 104 306 |
70-74 | 5 765 883 | +21.7%⇒ | 7 019 814 |
75-79 | 3 472 256 | +27.9%⇒ | 4 439 800 |
80-84 | 1 854 567 | +34.3%⇒ | 2 491 215 |
85-89 | 790 867 | +43.4%⇒ | 1 134 132 |
90-94 | 229 258 | +57.8%⇒ | 361 702 |
95-99 | 25 002 | +80.3%⇒ | 45 076 |
100+ | 1 739 | +130.2%⇒ | 4 003 |
[1] United Nations, Department
of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population
Prospects: The 2015 Revision. Data are estimated and projections according to a
medium fertility variant. Reused with United Nations permission. Downloaded:
2015-11-15
The fourth pillar is represented by the study of
the Sub-Saharan economy. Sub-Saharan Africa is home to a large part of the
world population in conditions of extreme poverty (with severe difficulties of
access to essential goods and living conditions of the contemporary era), and
since among the great regions of the world it has the highest percentage of
poor, is a priority area for development aid provided by the vast international
bureaucratic machine. Aid to date has not been lacking in the form of
cancellation of debts, subsidized credits or donations, it comes from
multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World
Bank, FAO or the United Nations Development Agency, as well as from individual
states, flanked by the widespread presence of non-governmental organizations
and foundations. In more recent times foreign direct investments have taken
place while the presence of China, India and Brazil is growing, which are a
novelty in that economic landscape. But this is not enough to move the reasons
for a persistent depressed economy. A simple comparison explains the miserable
conditions: in 2007, the income of the entire sub-Saharan Africa was estimated
at about 762 billion dollars, a value slightly higher than that of the
Netherlands (about 750 billion), which have a population 50 times smaller
(World bank 2009b,). In the world-wide classification by income brackets, in
2007 none of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa were included in the
high-income group (World bank 2009b,). Only 6 countries (Botswana, Gabon,
Mauritius, Mayotte, Seychelles, South Africa) were in the high-end
middle-income group, and another 8 (Angola, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Republic of
the Congo, Lesotho, Namibia, Sudan, Swaziland) in low-income middle-income
group. The low income produced is in the majority of cases the first, heavy
constraint on improving the living conditions of citizens. In the collective
imagination, sub-Saharan Africa often appears to be marked by misery, conflicts
or the incidence of the AIDS epidemic, with the high mortality due to it. It is
also perceived as a residual space of intact nature and of ‘tradition’, while
in developed countries, non-populated environments are restricted and the
approval of local cultures is feared. The economies of sub-Saharan Africa
generate income primarily in three sectors: energy and mineral resources,
agriculture (commercial, subsistence or small independent farmers) and services
(with an important weight of the public sector). According to World Bank
estimates, in 2007 agriculture generated around 15% of the added value produced
in the region, industry (including mining and energy) around 32%, services
around 54% (World bank 2009b, ). The countries of sub-Saharan Africa, with
limited exceptions, have not developed that manufacturing specialization for
exports that has driven the growth of the countries of Southeast Asia, China
and India. They have remained marginal in the process of globalization, and
find it difficult to find in the new international division of labor a role
different from that which they played in the colonial order, as producers of
agricultural (cotton, coffee etc.) or mining (gold, diamonds) raw materials .
Recent news gives Marrocco the possibility of overcoming South Africa as a car
manufacturer and, in the near future, Italy’s production also seems to be
outdated. The panorama of sub-Saharan Africa is dominated by two very large
economies in relation to its global income, Nigeria and South Africa, which
together contributed 54% to the region’s income in 2007 (respectively 18% and
36%; World bank 2009b,), while their citizens represented almost a quarter of
its population. Nigeria, a very populous country, generates income both for its
size and for its oil revenues; but his per capita income in 2007 was only $
930, just in line with the area average. Countries without access to the sea
are disadvantaged in accessing international markets also for economic and
political reasons. They are countries with low density of economic activity,
with an environment that is not conducive to entrepreneurial initiatives, with
high costs due to inadequate and fragile infrastructures, and with additional
costs, in international trade, due to the long bureaucratic time needed to
carry out the passage of goods at the borders. African economies, and not only
the more fragile ones, are exposed to the loss of value of their oil and mining
exports, to the contraction of foreign direct investments due to the
international liquidity crisis, to the decline in the tourist market or in the
demand for primary products. In the short term, they also suffer the risk of
the reduction in aid flows, for the inevitably smaller financial resources in
donor countries.
The fifth pillar will analyze European demography
and the trends that are looming in the near future. The current data tell us
that by 2050, with the exception of the United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Norway
and Ireland, if the doors of emigration were to remain closed in Europe there
would be a demographic decrease estimated from 10 to 12%, therefore we will
have a continent with 60/70 million less inhabitants. A non-traumatic decrease
at first sight in particular if you think that a stasis in demography could
also have positive effects. Europe is a continent densely settled by humans who
leave deep traces on the environment, for the energy they consume, the primary
resources they transform, the artifacts and infrastructures they build, the
pollution they produce. Looking at the stagnation period between 1980 and 2015,
7% of population growth can be broken down into -22% for the population under
30 years of age, + 21% for those between 30 and 60 years of age, and + 58% for
that with more than 60 years. The effort is to efficiently and effectively cope
with the statistical requirements necessary for the production of information
on the consistency, structure and dynamics of the population, including the
migrant population. Creating circularity and sharing information between the
data of the survey institutes that contribute to the production of official
population statistical data, a prerequisite for a correct system of relations
between national and community level based on the transparency of statistical
procedures and methodologies. During the execution of the project, various
professionals will have to deal with:
• permanent and technologically assisted
interactivity in communication between the various national Statistics Offices
and Eurostat, regarding all phases of the population statistics production
process, both with regard to regulatory and procedural aspects, and to
technical and technological ones;
• promotion and assistance of population
statistical data acquisition processes;
• standardization of the monitoring, control and
evaluation processes of the coverage and quality of the surveys;
• training for sharing tools to accompany
activities aimed at collecting demographic data and enhancing human capital.
The sixth pillar will examine European
welfare in detail. Making international comparisons requires that the data
under consideration be comparable. The preferred source for social spending
will be Eurostat, identified in accordance with the criteria adopted in the
ESSPROS (European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics), which
classifies social protection expenditure according to the various risks
(disease, old age, disability, survivors , unemployment, family, social
exclusion, housing). This criterion will be adopted for all the statistical
institutes of the EU countries. and, if necessary, also from countries outside
the U.E. The focus will be on the load of solidarity that weighs on the EU
countries. load that if it becomes too burdensome due to an economic crisis or
the progressive aging of the population, it could be necessary to drastically
dismantle social benefits on the model of historical immigration countries.
According to OECD data, in 2012 German spending on
welfare was equivalent to 29.6% of GDP, two percentage points above the average
of the eight countries covered by the Prowelfare research (27.6%). The same is
true for public health expenditure (8.6% in Germany, against 7.4% of the
average) and for professional training (0.4% against 0.1%) while expenditure
for family-work balance it is lower than the average (2.1% against 2.4%).
We will see as a reference the
German welfare state which not only deserves careful study, but above all will
have a reference value for the remaining EU countries. To simplify in 2015, it
was hoped that asylum seekers would be quickly integrated into the German labor
market, so as not to weigh more on the welfare state. Thus began a recognition
of their level of education, in order to be able to better assess their
placement. The current forecasts are far less optimistic than then: the bulk of
the refugees have little specialization or have unsolicited qualifications,
with the consequence of weighing for years on public budgets (federal and
state). The undeniable and growing rift within a society that has seen a
massive influx of people from different cultural realities could call into
question the keeping of the social pact.
International comparisons are also affected by the type of instrument chosen by
the various countries to face various types of social risk (for example,
poverty or unemployment of older workers). Always to simplify, historically,
due to structural limits of the welfare system, Italy has resorted to the
pension system (also through early retirements) to meet welfare and employment needs.
On the other hand, other countries (especially in Northern Europe), in the
event of an early exit from the activity, provide generous disability or
unemployment benefits, which are not accounted for in social security
expenditure, although they perform a function completely similar to old-age
pensions. The various divergences between States will be studied: for example
Italy is characterized by an older population than other EU partners. However,
in the “Old age” item of Esspros (the one on which the comparisons
between countries are based), in addition to social pensions and other
subsidies (4.3% of the total expenditure), are also included the payments for
treatment of private and public severance pay (TFR and TFS, an Italian
peculiarity), which in 2011 amounted to 11.6% of total expenditure. As is
known, these disbursements constitute a form of deferred wages and not a social
security measure to protect the risk of old age; in fact, they are available at
any time the contractual relationship is interrupted (even well before
retirement) and can be anticipated in the presence of specific needs of the
worker (medical costs and purchase of the first home). Welfare is not an act of
charity, but an incentive to social peace, in order to reduce conflicts, in the
name of equality of opportunity. It is public support for the younger
generations and is functional to mutual assistance mechanisms to avoid a
continuous reproduction of the intergenerational conflict. In the absence of
the current welfare state, many young adults would suffer from a lack of
economic emancipation and a more difficult personal emancipation.
Multiculturalism, separation,
integration, interaction
The main purpose of this project is to analyze, study and understand the
factors of migration, but also to explore its future, to build projections and
scenarios indispensable for producing and governing changes, reforms.
This means outlining a suitable policy to guarantee effective management of the
migration phenomenon. A complex issue that must necessarily stimulate dialogue
and cooperation between the countries of origin, transit and destination, in
order to find common solutions for each related issue, i.e. improve border
controls, guarantee international protection, counteract irregular immigration
and make the most of the positive effects induced by regular immigration. But
all this is not enough. It is necessary to think of reasoned radical changes,
adequate planning and effective policy development. One of the fundamental
problems is the formation of a society with multiple cultures, in the full
sense of the word. This is a problem that underlies all the other problems of
our time and the one to come in which the co-presence has so far created
separation in the places of life, neighborhoods, types of work, schools, etc.
with careful behavior to avoid the dangers of contamination or contagion,
against which the community must defend itself. It has been argued and still
argues that separation is the only way to avoid the clash between irreconcilable
realities. It would serve to avoid what is called the “clash of
civilizations” in one’s own home. History has already been concerned with
providing us with the “separate but equal” model with its obvious
limitations. It happens that when one side is socially, economically,
culturally and politically stronger than the other, separation becomes
discriminatory. Integration, as opposed to separation, aims at homogeneous
society, in which cultural differences subside until they disappear. However,
integration has a dynamic that sees a culture that integrates and one that is
integrated, that is, to an asymmetry between one, more vital and the other
less. Integrationism is inexorably the ideology of the dominant culture. If he
is dominant, sooner or later he will want to exercise his dominion and,
inexorably, he will thus manifest his true nature which is to assimilate the
other. Naturally this dynamic presupposes the superiority of one culture over
the others; it is a mild version of cultural racism that justifies the claim to
engulf recessive cultures or, at the most, to let them survive as folklore, as
a show. This is not always the case. It also happens that, if the different
culture “cannot be integrated”, the homogeneous society feels authorized
to practice policies of segregation or oppression. Integrationism tends to
mitigate first, and then cancel, the identity aspects of different cultures. In
short, integration is the watchword of culturally homogeneous organic
communities. Can we be against communities when we talk about others and not
when we talk about ourselves? The interaction remains, whose validity rests on
the need and ability of cultures to enter into relationships, to define
themselves, as well as defend themselves from assimilation, but also on the
willingness to build together and, possibly, to learn from each other . Here
there is a need not to confuse these attitudes with simple tolerance. Each
party must recognize the others as a counterpart in a relationship oriented to
the search for the right solutions to the problems of coexistence, without
requiring a priori renunciations of its ideals and values. It is unthinkable
that immigrants, as individuals, are able to enter into a relationship of
reciprocity, even if only vaguely respectful of a balance with the target
society. For this reason, the imposition of individualistic rules, typical of
western societies, towards those who come to us from community ways of life
appear inappropriate. We must avoid unhinging social ties and cultural comforts,
solutions that may seem to us a liberation, but for them it is certainly
violence. And this interaction cannot be separated from the involvement of
migrants and migrant and refugee researchers from backgrounds with an entirely
different cultural background. The interaction, on the other hand, while
starting from the recognition of diversity, or rather enhancing it as an
element of potential common wealth, is open to evolution and mutual influences,
in view of a common human horizon. The interaction is not universalistic from
the start, but it can become so in perspective. And it would be a
non-aggressive, open, comprehensive, plural universalism, an enemy of
identities brandished as weapons of war. In substance, the colonialist and
imperialist perspective, which also makes use of cultural means, which the West
has carried within itself as a germ for at least a couple of centuries, would
disappear. The interaction is potentially rich in all the contents of
coexistence: mutual respect, openness, curiosity for diversity, spirit of
equality and welcome, warm brotherhood in the difficulties of the human
condition. And it is the reality that you touch with your hand in attending any
of the communities or associations that deal with hospitality. We could also
observe our life with different eyes, from sides hitherto obscured by habit.
The expected impacts of our project align directly with our objectives to
tackle the problem of immigration and to understand the drama south of the
Mediterranean where misery, armed conflicts, illegal trafficking, epidemics and
famines are concentrated. Identify the causes of the resistance of many
European countries to welcome African migrants. Analysis of the benefits for
the communities involved and improving government approaches and responses to
interpersonal relationships between migrants and natives.
Impact 1. Our research on migrant flows will create new knowledge for
administrative structures, sociologists, political scientists, educators,
politicians, but also for the public. These results will be widely disseminated
in academic journals, the popular press and policy reports.
Impact 1.1. Our social-economic-political indicators used to quantitatively and
qualitatively measure the phenomenon of migratory flow and historical reasons
and the study of the different methods and procedures adopted so far for asylum
seekers, can be used by other scholars and policy makers as a new index to
standardize the reception of migrants.
Stage 1.2.Our systematic research methodology will allow us to know in detail
the drama of many African countries and to mobilize resources to stem the
pauperism for which, in certain periods, large sections of the population African women are
affected by misery. Stimulate modest levels of well-being sufficient to
mitigate the motivations that induce migration.
Stage 2 Resolve the ambiguous status of the
migrant, at the same time a victim worthy of protection and subject liable to
coercive-punitive reaction. The same ambiguity is inevitably reflected also on
the status of the rescuers, exposed to the risk of a charge of aiding and
abetting.
Stage2.1. Our specific public policy
recommendations, based on new research and methods, will encourage community
socialization, cultural appreciation, economic relations and political
involvement